Reflecting on the Impact of an Extended Tax Credit

Last week a bi-partisan deal was announced in the Senate that will likely pave the way for the new homebuyer’s tax credit to be extended through April 2010. The deal also includes plans for a significant expansion of the tax credit, raising the income requirements to $125,000 per individual and $225,000 per couple from $75,000 per individual and $150,000 per couple. This expansion means that many more individuals will be eligible for the tax credit than were previously. Finally, the deal added a $6,500 tax credit will be available to homeowners wishing to move out of their current home into a more expensive one.

I have been thinking about the deal all weekend, and I worry about its effects. While the goal of the credit is to strengthen the market and help bring home prices back up, increasing income requirements and adding a tax credit to incentivize trading up seems like it risks exacerbating the current problems in the housing market. Many of the current problems in the housing market have been created by homeowners (many first-time homeowners) taking out mortgages that were more than they could afford to pay in order to buy homes. Even when they could afford the mortgage, the recent economic problems have led many to be out of work or find their401(k)s and pensions to be less than they had expected. Consequently, the number of foreclosures and mortgage delinquencies reached all time highs in recent months.

In light of these developments, some proposed that maybe homeownership should no longer be an essential part of the American Dream. It was argued that it is a disservice to put people into homes they cannot afford. While the tax credit is not a very large sum of money, it is enough money to push individuals to act in uncertain times. A realtor in Portland, ME commented that nearly 70% of their clients were motivated by the tax credit. Yes, the housing market could use a boost, but when individuals are making a significant long-term financial decision for a short-term financial incentive, it seems like many poor choices can occur.

Reverse mortgages and refinances are available to help homeowners who find themselves over-extended, but reverse mortgages are only available to those over 62, and refinances and short pays have been extremely hard to get. To avoid another housing crisis, the government does need to stimulate the market, but putting more borrowers into homes they cannot afford does not seem to be a safe way to do so.

New Housing Starts Unexpectedly Down in September

A day after positive news about existing home sales and housing prices, the data on new home sales sent a negative current through the economy. This morning it was reported that new home sales fell unexpectedly after 5 months of consecutive increases. Home sales fell from a seasonally-adjusted 417,000 new home sales in August to 402,000 in September, a decrease of 3.6%. But a survey of economists had predicted that the number of home sales would rise to 440,000 in September, leading to a prediction nearly 10% higher than the actual amount.

This is not the first time we have seen mixed housing data. While it is easy to speculate on the ups and downs of the market, only time can tell whether the bumps are telling of actual trends or merely slight deviations from the mean. This month, all the positive data about home prices and existing home sales, as well as climbing orders for long lasting goods, show that the industry may be beginning to recover, even if that recovery is a slow one with some set backs along the way.

US Home Prices Continue Improvement in August

In the Case-Schiller report data released this morning, US home prices continue to show improvement in August. The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Schiller index showed a seasonally-adjusted 1 percent improvement in August over the previous month. 16 of the 20 cities in the index saw their prices rise. Only four–Cleveland, Las Vegas, Charlotte, and Seattle–saw their home prices decline.

While the numbers are still down compared to last year, the continued upward trend is a nice change from last winter, when all cities saw their prices decline for several months on end. Many believe that the housing market is now turning around. However, the prices are down significantly. The average price today is equivalent to 2003 levels. In Detroit, they are at the same levels they were at in 1995. Compared to last August, prices are down 11.3 percent. As a result, many of the problems we have seen recently in regards to underwater homeowners and foreclosures seem likely to continue in the near future. As the New York Times said, in many places, it’s as if the housing boom never happened.

Prices Slide Even in America's Most Expensive Zip Codes

An article on Forbes revealed today that even within the Forbes list of America’s 500 Most Expensive Zip Codes, home prices have taken a large hit in the past year. The top 3 zip codes on the list experienced declines of 23%, 23% and 24% respectively. The list as a whole saw a 7% drop on average.

But one of the things that is interesting about the list is that prices were not necessarily being pulled down by foreclosures. Several zip codes (in Atherton, CA, Hastings-on-Hudson, NY and East Hampton, NY) were used as examples of places where prices have dropped significantly without homes being in foreclosure. No homes are in foreclosure in Hastings-on-Hudson, yet prices have dropped 9%. In Atherton, only 10 homes are in foreclosure with prices dropping 23%. Rather, it appears the glut of homes on the market has helped to drive prices down. In East Hampton, at the current rate, it would take 25 years before all the homes currently on the market are sold. This cannot help but have an affect on home prices.

The five most expensive zip codes in America:

1. Alpine, NJ ($4,139,041)

2. Atherton, CA ($3,849,133)

3. New York, NY ($3,521,514)

4. Duarte, CA ($3,444,773)

5. Beverly Hills, CA ($3,367,167)

Good News For the Housing Market

There was some good news for the housing market this week. New home sales increased more than expected in July, up 9.6 percent from June, and at the highest levels since September of 2008. Sales were up to 433,000 versus the 395,000 adjusted figure from June. Analysts, meanwhile, were only expecting sales to increase to 390,000 from the originally reported 384,000 in June. However, new home sales are still down 13.4% from a year ago. Most of the increase appears to be attributed to the Northeast, with a 32.4% increase in July, and the South, with a 16.2% increase.

The Standard & Poor’s Case-Schiller index posted its first quarter over quarter increase in three years, rising 2.9 percent in the second quarter compared to the first. The price index fell 15.4% in June, compared to a revised 17% drop in May, indicating that the rate of decline in home prices appears to be slowing.

Housing Prices Stabilize, Home Sales Increase- Is the Market Better?

The National Association of Realtors revealed today that home sales continued their increase in June, with the sale of previously occupied homes rising 3.6% from May. It was the highest number of sales since October of 2008 and beat analysts expectations by 50,000 homes. In perhaps more telling numbers, the median sales price was $181,800. While this is up from $174,700 in May, it is down from the $215,000 median sales price in June of last year.

Meanwhile, other reports are asking whether housing prices may have stabilized. The Federal Housing Finance Agency’s housing price index, based on repeat sales of the same houses, rose 0.9% in May from April. It is nearly unchanged since November (source: Wall Street Journal, front page, 7/23/09). However, the index seems to be deceiving. It does not include subprime or other unconventional mortgages, which are the source of many of the problems in the housing market and which appear to have driven down the prices throughout the country.

These signs seem to be positive for the housing industry. But jobless claims are still high, and foreclosures, new homes, and unsold properties do not seem to play a large role in these reports. While it is nice to see two indicators moving in such a positive direction, other downward indicators seem to mean that it might not be wise to get too optimistic just yet.

Calculating the Housing Market: April's Impact

A report released by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) indicates that the market sentiment index among US home builders has fallen by 1 (from 15 to 16) in their June survey. Many factors appear to support this fall:

- foreclosures have increased

- the home for sale:home sold period is now greater than 10 months, a large number for the housing industry

- mortgage rates have increased dramatically in recent weeks

- new home sales have increased

- housing prices are down 15% in April year over year

and, perhaps most importantly for those participating in the survey, home construction was down 13% in April vs. March. Construction year over year was at less than half of the April 2008 levels.

It is therefore unsurrpising that home builders are not optimistic about the market right now, especially since new properties to continue to compete against old properties, and the depreciation occuring and difficulty of selling homes does not make building new properties a sure bet.

Economic Forecasting Survey Results Show Pessimism in the Housing Market

The Wall Street Journal released the results of their monthly forecasting survey of economists. Of interest to the reverse mortgage industry: the economists expect housing prices to continue to decline. Even more worrisome, they expect the 10-year treasury bond, one of the factors upon which the CMT HECM interest rate is based, to nearly double to 4.40 by December 2010. Housing starts are also expected to be a low value this year. The majority of respondants don’t expect the Case-Schiller index to rise until Q1 or Q2 of 2010. Yet, there appears to be a discontinuity between the expected performance of the economy and the expected performance of the housing market. In other words, 92% of the economists believe the economy can sustain a recovery while housing prices are still falling, and given that many see the recession ending soon, it seems like they predict that will be the case.

While predictions are nothing but predictions, a severly increased 10-year treasury bond rate and falling home prices would not be good for the reverse mortgage industry, disqualifying more customers and reducing the amount borrowers are able to receive for their homes. All that can be done now is to wait…