New Housing Starts Unexpectedly Down in September

A day after positive news about existing home sales and housing prices, the data on new home sales sent a negative current through the economy. This morning it was reported that new home sales fell unexpectedly after 5 months of consecutive increases. Home sales fell from a seasonally-adjusted 417,000 new home sales in August to 402,000 in September, a decrease of 3.6%. But a survey of economists had predicted that the number of home sales would rise to 440,000 in September, leading to a prediction nearly 10% higher than the actual amount.

This is not the first time we have seen mixed housing data. While it is easy to speculate on the ups and downs of the market, only time can tell whether the bumps are telling of actual trends or merely slight deviations from the mean. This month, all the positive data about home prices and existing home sales, as well as climbing orders for long lasting goods, show that the industry may be beginning to recover, even if that recovery is a slow one with some set backs along the way.

Rethinking the New Homebuyers Tax Credit

The government’s $8,000 tax credit to new homebuyers has been under a lot of scrutiny in recent months. The tax credit was designed to help stimulate the housing market and lead to increased home ownership. To that end, it has been extremely successful. However, abuses within the system appear to have also been quite high. While the reverse mortgage industry found itself under scrutiny for what appear to be under about a dozen complaints, the federal government has started 167 criminal investigations and 107,000 civil investigations into possible fraud. Of the 1.4 million people who claimed the over 10 billion dollars in tax credits in 2008-2009, 60% had incomes under $50,000– leading to questions as to whether they could even afford a home.

The new homebuyer tax credit has certainly had many positive effects. Of the 1.4 million home sales, 350,000 to 400,000 were estimated to be a direct result of the credit’s availability. That accounts for 25-30% of the eligible home sales. In some areas, real estate agents have reported that up to 70% of their clients were considering buying a home as a direct result of the tax credit. With sales of existing homes at their highest level in two years, many are attributing the strong numbers to the tax credit, which expires November 30. Sales increased 9.4% in September according to the National Association of Realtors.

So which is it? It seems that the tax credit likely has had a positive effect on the market. However, the rock-bottom prices and increased inventory have also likely contributed to many first-time buyers choosing to enter the market. The increase in first-time homebuyers is a good sign for the real estate industry, but it is still a disconcerting one. If 60% of the 1.4 million people who claimed the tax credit from 2008-2009 had incomes of under $50,000, could they really afford to own a home? Will we see another foreclosure crisis within the mortgage industry down the line as these homebuyers are faced with rising rates or declining incomes? The answer to these questions remains to be seen.

While the pros of the tax credit may outweigh the cons, with the damage to the real estate industry wiping out the savings of many throughout the country, if the credit is extended, it should be done so with caution. While the image of every American owning a home is a promising one, the government has an obligation to ensure that those owning homes can actually afford to do so. Otherwise, history is at risk of repeating itself.

Sources: The New York Times: Home Tax Credit Audit Shows Abuses
The New York Times: Tax Credit Lifts Home Sales to Two-Year High
The Associated Press: Northeast Home Resales Post 11 Pct Annual Increase

Housing Market Bounces

As the news today that housing resales dropped in August sent stocks spiraling downwards, those within the real estate industry were faced with a really interesting reality. The housing market rebound may not be as linear as once hoped.

Existing home sales fell 2.7% in August after a record increase of 7.2% electrified the industry in July. However, there are many factors that likely played into the change. The federal tax credit of $8,000 for new home buyers is due to expire soon, likely contributing to the glut of deals in July. Jobless rates continue to be high, as do foreclosures. With many foreclosures yet to hit the market (likely knocking home prices down), it seems reasonable to think that the market may not climb steadily, but rather peak and valley as it restarts.

This may just mean that government programs and incentives (such as the tax credit) are important to getting consumers back in the market, and that sellers may just need to watch timing to match the ups and downs of the market. Even when home sales increase, the inventory of houses on the market is still high and unlikely to dissipate rapidly. But sellers can likely work within the curves of the market to best optimize when to sell their home (and at what price).

Finally, the coming winter means that it’s unsurprising that home sales will dwindle. Home sales generally increase during the spring and summer, with the warmer temperatures. Sales will probably decrease as fall changes to winter.

Pending Home Sales Improve in July

Pending home sales improved for the sixth straight month in July to a level of 97.6 on the National Association of Realtors (NAR) index. While the index has improved dramatically from January, when it was around 80, levels still are nowhere near what they were during the housing bubble. In 2005, the pending home sales index neared 130.

Although pending home sales have increased, some of the factors behind the increase include falling home prices, low mortgage rates and the Obama administration’s $8,000 tax credit for first-time home buyers. But with the tax credit expiring towards the end of the year and home prices beginning to go back up (or decrease less rapidly), some question whether the rise in pending home sales will be sustainable.

(Reference: The Wall Street Journal print edition)

Housing Prices Stabilize, Home Sales Increase- Is the Market Better?

The National Association of Realtors revealed today that home sales continued their increase in June, with the sale of previously occupied homes rising 3.6% from May. It was the highest number of sales since October of 2008 and beat analysts expectations by 50,000 homes. In perhaps more telling numbers, the median sales price was $181,800. While this is up from $174,700 in May, it is down from the $215,000 median sales price in June of last year.

Meanwhile, other reports are asking whether housing prices may have stabilized. The Federal Housing Finance Agency’s housing price index, based on repeat sales of the same houses, rose 0.9% in May from April. It is nearly unchanged since November (source: Wall Street Journal, front page, 7/23/09). However, the index seems to be deceiving. It does not include subprime or other unconventional mortgages, which are the source of many of the problems in the housing market and which appear to have driven down the prices throughout the country.

These signs seem to be positive for the housing industry. But jobless claims are still high, and foreclosures, new homes, and unsold properties do not seem to play a large role in these reports. While it is nice to see two indicators moving in such a positive direction, other downward indicators seem to mean that it might not be wise to get too optimistic just yet.

Calculating the Housing Market: April's Impact

A report released by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) indicates that the market sentiment index among US home builders has fallen by 1 (from 15 to 16) in their June survey. Many factors appear to support this fall:

- foreclosures have increased

- the home for sale:home sold period is now greater than 10 months, a large number for the housing industry

- mortgage rates have increased dramatically in recent weeks

- new home sales have increased

- housing prices are down 15% in April year over year

and, perhaps most importantly for those participating in the survey, home construction was down 13% in April vs. March. Construction year over year was at less than half of the April 2008 levels.

It is therefore unsurrpising that home builders are not optimistic about the market right now, especially since new properties to continue to compete against old properties, and the depreciation occuring and difficulty of selling homes does not make building new properties a sure bet.

The Great Housing Market Hope

Welcome good news: A BusinessWeek article last week announced that housing sales in some of the markets hardest hit by the financial crisis have rebounded to levels that have surpassed those reached during the housing boom. Cape Coral, FL, Las Vegas, NV and California’s Inland Empire all saw home sales in February reach rates that were 80% higher than those of a year earlier.

As mentioned yesterday, the vast majority of these sales are of foreclosed homes. The ability of first-time buyers to earn up to $8,000 in tax credits coupled with low mortgage rates and bargain prices have lured many into the market.

It’s great to see home sales increase and the number of vacant properties diminish. However, it is even greater to think of all the people who can finally own their home for the first time.

Housing Market Continues Decline in March

The US Census Bureau and HUD jointly released a report today which noted that the housing market continued to decline in March.

Building permits for privately-owned housing units dropped 9% below the Feburary rate and 45% compared to March of last year. For single family homes, the rate dropped 7.4% compared to February.

Housing starts declined 10.8% from February and 48.4% compared to March of last year. However, for single-family homes, the rate was unchanged from February.

But there is a silver lining– more houses were completed in March than in February. Privately owned homes were completed at a rate that is 3.5% higher than the month before, while single family homes were completed at a rate that is 5.0% higher than in February. The completion of homes is a good sign. It indicates that projects are still being completed and the growth of new homes.

The foreclosure market nonetheless surged during the first quarter. Foreclosures increased 9% over the previous quarter and 17% in March compared to February. Many of the new home sales are of foreclosed properties, especially in weakened markets, up to 70 or 80%.

Continued home sales, even if they are of foreclosures, mean the market has not stalled. Yet, increased foreclosure rates are not a good sign–hopefully the housing market will rebound soon.