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Posts Tagged ‘housing market’
Monday, November 2nd, 2009
 Last week a bi-partisan deal was announced in the Senate that will likely pave the way for the new homebuyer’s tax credit to be extended through April 2010. The deal also includes plans for a significant expansion of the tax credit, raising the income requirements to $125,000 per individual and $225,000 per couple from $75,000 per individual and $150,000 per couple. This expansion means that many more individuals will be eligible for the tax credit than were previously. Finally, the deal added a $6,500 tax credit will be available to homeowners wishing to move out of their current home into a more expensive one.
I have been thinking about the deal all weekend, and I worry about its effects. While the goal of the credit is to strengthen the market and help bring home prices back up, increasing income requirements and adding a tax credit to incentivize trading up seems like it risks exacerbating the current problems in the housing market. Many of the current problems in the housing market have been created by homeowners (many first-time homeowners) taking out mortgages that were more than they could afford to pay in order to buy homes. Even when they could afford the mortgage, the recent economic problems have led many to be out of work or find their401(k)s and pensions to be less than they had expected. Consequently, the number of foreclosures and mortgage delinquencies reached all time highs in recent months.
In light of these developments, some proposed that maybe homeownership should no longer be an essential part of the American Dream. It was argued that it is a disservice to put people into homes they cannot afford. While the tax credit is not a very large sum of money, it is enough money to push individuals to act in uncertain times. A realtor in Portland, ME commented that nearly 70% of their clients were motivated by the tax credit. Yes, the housing market could use a boost, but when individuals are making a significant long-term financial decision for a short-term financial incentive, it seems like many poor choices can occur.
Reverse mortgages and refinances are available to help homeowners who find themselves over-extended, but reverse mortgages are only available to those over 62, and refinances and short pays have been extremely hard to get. To avoid another housing crisis, the government does need to stimulate the market, but putting more borrowers into homes they cannot afford does not seem to be a safe way to do so.
Tags: home, home prices, homeowner, homeowners, housing crisis, housing market, money, refinance, reverse mortgage, reverse mortgages, Senate, tax credit
Posted in Consumer News, Industry News | No Comments »
Friday, October 30th, 2009
 The Senate announced a bi-partisan deal yesterday to extend the new homebuyer’s tax credit through April 2010. The deal will extend the $8,000 tax credit, which was set to expire in weeks, on homes with values up to $800,000. While the previous tax credit only applied to homebuyers with salaries of up to $75,000/year for individual and $150,000/couples, the deal raises the requirement, so that the tax credit will now apply to homebuyers with salaries of up to $125,000/year for individuals and $225,000 for couples. This will serve to make the vast majority of homebuyers available for the tax credit. In addition, a new $6,500 tax credit will be available to home owners wishing to move out of their current homes into more expensive ones.
The extension of the tax credit is expected to cost the government $10.2 billion, which will be offset by delaying a tax-break for U.S. based international corporations from 2010 to 2017.
The extension of the tax credit (as well as the new credit for current homeowners) is expected to help the housing market and real estate industry bounce back from the housing crisis. It is hoped that the tax credit, which has been successful in the past year, will help the market return to its former strength in 2010.
Tags: homebuyer, homebuyers, homeowner, homeowners, housing market, new homebuyer's tax credit, real estate, Senate, tax credit
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Tuesday, October 27th, 2009
 In the Case-Schiller report data released this morning, US home prices continue to show improvement in August. The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Schiller index showed a seasonally-adjusted 1 percent improvement in August over the previous month. 16 of the 20 cities in the index saw their prices rise. Only four–Cleveland, Las Vegas, Charlotte, and Seattle–saw their home prices decline.
While the numbers are still down compared to last year, the continued upward trend is a nice change from last winter, when all cities saw their prices decline for several months on end. Many believe that the housing market is now turning around. However, the prices are down significantly. The average price today is equivalent to 2003 levels. In Detroit, they are at the same levels they were at in 1995. Compared to last August, prices are down 11.3 percent. As a result, many of the problems we have seen recently in regards to underwater homeowners and foreclosures seem likely to continue in the near future. As the New York Times said, in many places, it’s as if the housing boom never happened.
Tags: Case-, Case-Schiller, case-schiller index, cities, home prices, housing market, real estate, Standard & Poor's, The New York Times, US
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Friday, October 23rd, 2009
 The government’s $8,000 tax credit to new homebuyers has been under a lot of scrutiny in recent months. The tax credit was designed to help stimulate the housing market and lead to increased home ownership. To that end, it has been extremely successful. However, abuses within the system appear to have also been quite high. While the reverse mortgage industry found itself under scrutiny for what appear to be under about a dozen complaints, the federal government has started 167 criminal investigations and 107,000 civil investigations into possible fraud. Of the 1.4 million people who claimed the over 10 billion dollars in tax credits in 2008-2009, 60% had incomes under $50,000– leading to questions as to whether they could even afford a home.
The new homebuyer tax credit has certainly had many positive effects. Of the 1.4 million home sales, 350,000 to 400,000 were estimated to be a direct result of the credit’s availability. That accounts for 25-30% of the eligible home sales. In some areas, real estate agents have reported that up to 70% of their clients were considering buying a home as a direct result of the tax credit. With sales of existing homes at their highest level in two years, many are attributing the strong numbers to the tax credit, which expires November 30. Sales increased 9.4% in September according to the National Association of Realtors.
So which is it? It seems that the tax credit likely has had a positive effect on the market. However, the rock-bottom prices and increased inventory have also likely contributed to many first-time buyers choosing to enter the market. The increase in first-time homebuyers is a good sign for the real estate industry, but it is still a disconcerting one. If 60% of the 1.4 million people who claimed the tax credit from 2008-2009 had incomes of under $50,000, could they really afford to own a home? Will we see another foreclosure crisis within the mortgage industry down the line as these homebuyers are faced with rising rates or declining incomes? The answer to these questions remains to be seen.
While the pros of the tax credit may outweigh the cons, with the damage to the real estate industry wiping out the savings of many throughout the country, if the credit is extended, it should be done so with caution. While the image of every American owning a home is a promising one, the government has an obligation to ensure that those owning homes can actually afford to do so. Otherwise, history is at risk of repeating itself.
Sources: The New York Times: Home Tax Credit Audit Shows Abuses
The New York Times: Tax Credit Lifts Home Sales to Two-Year High
The Associated Press: Northeast Home Resales Post 11 Pct Annual Increase
Tags: first-time homebuyers tax credit, foreclosure, fraud, government, home sales, homebuyer, housing market, Mortgage, mortgages, new homebuyers, real estate, reverse mortgage, reverse mortgage industry, reverse mortgages, tax credit
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Thursday, September 24th, 2009
 As the news today that housing resales dropped in August sent stocks spiraling downwards, those within the real estate industry were faced with a really interesting reality. The housing market rebound may not be as linear as once hoped.
Existing home sales fell 2.7% in August after a record increase of 7.2% electrified the industry in July. However, there are many factors that likely played into the change. The federal tax credit of $8,000 for new home buyers is due to expire soon, likely contributing to the glut of deals in July. Jobless rates continue to be high, as do foreclosures. With many foreclosures yet to hit the market (likely knocking home prices down), it seems reasonable to think that the market may not climb steadily, but rather peak and valley as it restarts.
This may just mean that government programs and incentives (such as the tax credit) are important to getting consumers back in the market, and that sellers may just need to watch timing to match the ups and downs of the market. Even when home sales increase, the inventory of houses on the market is still high and unlikely to dissipate rapidly. But sellers can likely work within the curves of the market to best optimize when to sell their home (and at what price).
Finally, the coming winter means that it’s unsurprising that home sales will dwindle. Home sales generally increase during the spring and summer, with the warmer temperatures. Sales will probably decrease as fall changes to winter.
Tags: August, federal tax credit, foreclosures, home sales, housing market, July, real estate, real estate industry, sellers
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Friday, August 28th, 2009
 There was some good news for the housing market this week. New home sales increased more than expected in July, up 9.6 percent from June, and at the highest levels since September of 2008. Sales were up to 433,000 versus the 395,000 adjusted figure from June. Analysts, meanwhile, were only expecting sales to increase to 390,000 from the originally reported 384,000 in June. However, new home sales are still down 13.4% from a year ago. Most of the increase appears to be attributed to the Northeast, with a 32.4% increase in July, and the South, with a 16.2% increase.
The Standard & Poor’s Case-Schiller index posted its first quarter over quarter increase in three years, rising 2.9 percent in the second quarter compared to the first. The price index fell 15.4% in June, compared to a revised 17% drop in May, indicating that the rate of decline in home prices appears to be slowing.
Tags: case-schiller index, good news, home price, home prices, housing, housing market, new home sales, Standard & Poor's
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Monday, August 3rd, 2009
 A front page story in the Wall Street Journal this morning highlighted an interesting trend; high-end homeowners are being left behind in the housing market rebound. Stimulus programs, such as the $8,000 new homebuyer tax credit and low mortgage rates, are dependent upon income and home values. The jumbo mortgages necessary to take out a high-cost home have come with higher rates and lenders requiring an increasingly large portion as the down payment (20-30% of the property value). All this comes at a time when prospective buyers have had an even harder time selling their homes, making coming up with money up front difficult. As a result, while the market has begun to turn upwards for many first-time buyers and lower value homes, the market is still stagnant for those in the upper and upper-middle classes.
While it is perhaps unsurprising that stimulus programs might choose to target those with lower incomes, the recession has hit those with higher incomes as well. Many of the people affected by the stock market crash and financial fraud scandals are those who were making upwards of $150,000/year. After losing their jobs and/or the majority of their 401Ks, some members of this group are taking pay cuts in order to land new jobs. As home values decline however, this group also is beginning to have a hard time making mortgage payments and qualifying for relief. Jumbo mortgages are currently the type of mortgages with the highest default rate.
The government should do something to make sure that the upper middle class and upper classes are not completely cut out of the stimulus programs–at least so far as real estate is concerned. Their homes are taking some of the largest hits in a distressed market, to the point where selling is not possible without losing hundreds of thousands of dollars. And in markets such as California, some are extremely upside down on their mortgages. While they may be well off in comparative terms, they could still lose their homes (and many are), could still lose their jobs and source of income (and many have), and they still should be granted some form of relief.
Tags: California, front page, housing, housing market, jumbo mortgage, jumbo mortgages, Mortgage, mortgages, real estate, recession, relief, stimulus programs, underwater, upper class, upper middle class, Wall Street Journal
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Tuesday, July 28th, 2009
 The Case-Shiller Index from January 2000 - January 2009 shows the housing bubble well. Many believe the worst is now over. The Case-Shiller index for May indicates that the housing market may have hit bottom in April. Home prices continued their upturn in May, with prices down only 17.1% from last year, versus 18.1% in April. Prices also increased in May versus April by a half a percentage point, the first positive monthly return on the index in three years! However, when adjusted for seasonality, the prices show a slight drop.
Nonetheless, the positive message from the data is clear. While in February we reported that all 20 metropolitan areas on the Case-Shiller index had experienced a price decline from the previous month, this month, only 5 of them did: Las Vegas, Phoenix, Miami, Seattle, and Los Angeles.
Despite the decreasing rate of decline, analysts still don’t expect the market to stabilize much less prices to rise until late next year at the earliest. However, the market has exceeded expectations recently- maybe it will rebound sooner as well.
Tags: Case-Shiller Index, housing market, housing price, housing prices, Las Vegas, Los Angles, Miami, Phoenix, real estate, Seattle, Standard & Poor's
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Tuesday, June 23rd, 2009
 Existing home sales rose in May according to a report released to day by the National Association of Realtors. The level of 4.77 million homes is a 2.4% increase from an adjusted 4.66 million homes in April. However, it remains 3.6% below last year’s levels. The increase in homes sold is attributed this time to many returning buyers, who are gravitating towards existing home sales rather than distressed properties. Distressed sales fell to 33% of the sales in May, versus 45% of the sales in April. Yet the median home price, of $173,000 is still down 16.8% from a year earlier.
In other words, first time home buyers tend to gravitate towards homes in foreclosure, due to the lower prices. Yet these sales drag down the home values in the neighborhood, as we have discussed before. Return buyers, on the other hand, are less likely to buy a home in foreclosure. Their increasing market share appears to be good for the housing market as a whole, yet the steady decline of housing prices continues to have the real estate industry concerned.
Tags: foreclosure, home buyers, home values, housing market, housing prices, national association of realtors, real estate, real estate industry
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Thursday, June 18th, 2009
 A report released by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) indicates that the market sentiment index among US home builders has fallen by 1 (from 15 to 16) in their June survey. Many factors appear to support this fall:
- foreclosures have increased
- the home for sale:home sold period is now greater than 10 months, a large number for the housing industry
- mortgage rates have increased dramatically in recent weeks
- new home sales have increased
- housing prices are down 15% in April year over year
and, perhaps most importantly for those participating in the survey, home construction was down 13% in April vs. March. Construction year over year was at less than half of the April 2008 levels.
It is therefore unsurrpising that home builders are not optimistic about the market right now, especially since new properties to continue to compete against old properties, and the depreciation occuring and difficulty of selling homes does not make building new properties a sure bet.
Tags: april, home builder, home builders, home construction, home price, home prices, home sales, housing market, March, national association of home builders
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Last week a bi-partisan deal was announced in the Senate that will likely pave the way for the new homebuyer’s tax credit to be extended through April 2010. The deal also includes plans for a significant expansion of the tax credit, raising the income requirements to $125,000 per individual and $225,000 per couple from $75,000 per individual and $150,000 per couple. This expansion means that many more individuals will be eligible for the tax credit than were previously. Finally, the deal added a $6,500 tax credit will be available to homeowners wishing to move out of their current home into a more expensive one.
