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Posts Tagged ‘housing prices’
Tuesday, October 6th, 2009
Apartment vacancies reached 7.8% nationwide in the 3rd quarter, the highest point since 1986. The rate is expected to continue to rise in the winter months, which have continually seen lower demand for renters, as people are more likely to move during the warmer months. Nationally, effective rents have fallen 2.7% this past year, to around $972. However, this number is deceiving, as some markets have been hit harder than others. In fact, in the third quarter, 26 markets saw their vacancy rates improve, while 11 saw them remain stagnant. 42 markets saw their vacancies increase, the most dramatic being in Omaha, Nebraska, where they went up by 1.1% to 7.4%.
But the increased vacancy rates are not always correlating most strongly to decreases in rent. The biggest rent decreases are being found in San Jose, CA and New York City, with declines of 8.0% and 6.8% respectively. The decreasing rents and increasing vacancies have made it easier for renters to negotiate on prices and to shop around until they find the perfect place (and price). In addition, many former renters have bought homes for the first time taking advantage of the federal tax credit and the low housing prices.
Tags: apartment, apartment vacancies, housing prices, Nebraska, New York City, prices, rent, rents, San Jose, vacancy rates Posted in Consumer News, Industry News | No Comments »
Tuesday, September 8th, 2009
In a piece in the New York Times today, Edward Glaeser, the famed Harvard economist, made the following comment:
“When housing prices soared, ordinary Americans found it increasingly hard to afford a house. I would certainly cheer if Detroit produced a wonder car for $10,000 that could get 50 miles to the gallon and go from 0 to 60 in five seconds. I would also cheer if the housing industry could produce a beautiful and energy efficient 3,000-square-foot home for $100,000. The same logic pushed me to boo when housing became outrageously expensive. During the boom, I hoped that housing prices would stop rising and even decline.”
Glaeser’s sentiment leads to the following reflection: Isn’t there something appealing about a big beautiful home for $100,000? If housing is a basic right of all Americans (let alone all human beings), then wouldn’t it follow that low housing prices would be a good thing?
Imagine a world in with housing prices were so low that individuals purchasing their homes with cash was commonplace. While mortgages would still exist, they would no longer be necessary for all homebuyers. Perhaps a mortgage would become an option, like the decision purchasers make every day when deciding to make a purchase with cash, credit, or debit. Or, arguably more accurately, like the decision car buyers make when choosing whether to take out a loan or pay with cash.
It is true, as Glaeser pointed out, that low housing prices do have a more dramatic effect on the financial markets than most expected. However, this is only due to the symbiosis that exists between the housing industry, the mortgage industry, and the home goods industry. So many of the problems in the housing crisis were caused by homes being used as an investment vehicle. When home prices fell, borrowers were stuck with homes that were worth much less than their mortgage payments. As more and more borrowers lost their jobs in the subsequent Great Recession, even many whose homes still retained equity found themselves unable to afford their mortgages. And the housing crisis was exacerbated.
The idea of affordable housing for all is a very appealing one. While it does seem hard to imagine a world in which affordable housing for all could be made a reality and where housing prices could fall so as to make homeownership affordable without crashing the economy, before we spend all our time wishing housing prices would go back up, we should consider solutions (esp. long term) where housing does become more affordable, home ownership more stable, and an individual’s right to housing less susceptible to the whims of the economy.
Tags: affordable housing, Edward Glaeser, Glaeser, Great recession, Harvard, housing, housing prices, Mortgage, New York Times Posted in Consumer News, Industry News | No Comments »
Tuesday, July 28th, 2009
 The Case-Shiller Index from January 2000 - January 2009 shows the housing bubble well. Many believe the worst is now over.
The Case-Shiller index for May indicates that the housing market may have hit bottom in April. Home prices continued their upturn in May, with prices down only 17.1% from last year, versus 18.1% in April. Prices also increased in May versus April by a half a percentage point, the first positive monthly return on the index in three years! However, when adjusted for seasonality, the prices show a slight drop.
Nonetheless, the positive message from the data is clear. While in February we reported that all 20 metropolitan areas on the Case-Shiller index had experienced a price decline from the previous month, this month, only 5 of them did: Las Vegas, Phoenix, Miami, Seattle, and Los Angeles.
Despite the decreasing rate of decline, analysts still don’t expect the market to stabilize much less prices to rise until late next year at the earliest. However, the market has exceeded expectations recently- maybe it will rebound sooner as well.
Tags: Case-Shiller Index, housing market, housing price, housing prices, Las Vegas, Los Angles, Miami, Phoenix, real estate, Seattle, Standard & Poor's Posted in Consumer News, Industry News | No Comments »
Thursday, July 23rd, 2009
The National Association of Realtors revealed today that home sales continued their increase in June, with the sale of previously occupied homes rising 3.6% from May. It was the highest number of sales since October of 2008 and beat analysts expectations by 50,000 homes. In perhaps more telling numbers, the median sales price was $181,800. While this is up from $174,700 in May, it is down from the $215,000 median sales price in June of last year.
Meanwhile, other reports are asking whether housing prices may have stabilized. The Federal Housing Finance Agency’s housing price index, based on repeat sales of the same houses, rose 0.9% in May from April. It is nearly unchanged since November (source: Wall Street Journal, front page, 7/23/09). However, the index seems to be deceiving. It does not include subprime or other unconventional mortgages, which are the source of many of the problems in the housing market and which appear to have driven down the prices throughout the country.
These signs seem to be positive for the housing industry. But jobless claims are still high, and foreclosures, new homes, and unsold properties do not seem to play a large role in these reports. While it is nice to see two indicators moving in such a positive direction, other downward indicators seem to mean that it might not be wise to get too optimistic just yet.
Tags: home prices, home sales, homes, housing, housing prices, indicators, market, median sales price, Mortgage, mortgages, real estate Posted in Consumer News, Industry News | No Comments »
Tuesday, June 23rd, 2009
Existing home sales rose in May according to a report released to day by the National Association of Realtors. The level of 4.77 million homes is a 2.4% increase from an adjusted 4.66 million homes in April. However, it remains 3.6% below last year’s levels. The increase in homes sold is attributed this time to many returning buyers, who are gravitating towards existing home sales rather than distressed properties. Distressed sales fell to 33% of the sales in May, versus 45% of the sales in April. Yet the median home price, of $173,000 is still down 16.8% from a year earlier.
In other words, first time home buyers tend to gravitate towards homes in foreclosure, due to the lower prices. Yet these sales drag down the home values in the neighborhood, as we have discussed before. Return buyers, on the other hand, are less likely to buy a home in foreclosure. Their increasing market share appears to be good for the housing market as a whole, yet the steady decline of housing prices continues to have the real estate industry concerned.
Tags: foreclosure, home buyers, home values, housing market, housing prices, national association of realtors, real estate, real estate industry Posted in Industry News | No Comments »
Wednesday, June 10th, 2009
The reverse mortgage industry received a pleasant surprise this morning when the Wall Street Journal wrote a big feature on reverse mortgages on the front page of the personal journal section. While much of the article explains what reverse mortgages are and how they work, an interesting piece for lenders is the section on how much money the FHA has lost through reverse mortgages. HUD asked for $800 million taxpayer dollars to boost its loan-loss reserves as housing prices continue to decline. Jeff Lewis, the chairman of Generation Mortgage, mentioned that about 1/3 of the borrowers who might have closed reverse mortgages two years ago would no longer qualify today due to the declining home values. Perhaps in connection with this, the article mentions how sudden pricing changes by Fannie Mae have recently disrupted some reverse mortgage transactions, as borrowers realize they will qualify for less money at closing than they did when they began the application process, sometimes even having a shortfall.
The stresses on the industry are noteworthy, especially as interest in HECMs increases. The number of reverse mortgages being closed has proliferated in recent months, yet housing values do continue to decline. Hopefully these financial considerations will not too greatly imperil the government programs.
Tags: fannie mae, financial considerations, generation mortgage, HECMs, housing prices, HUD, reverse mortgage, reverse mortgage industry, reverse mortgages, Wall Street Jounral, Wall Street Journal, WSJ Posted in Consumer News, Industry News | No Comments »
Tuesday, May 19th, 2009
 The construction industry is not doing well, but does that mean the market is down?
Alright, it’s 10am CST. I have already read five conflicting headlines with respect to the housing market today:
1. ”Housing Starts Hurt by Steep Drop in Apartment Building” – NYTimes
2. “Sales Drop 10%, But Home Depot Tops Forecasts” – NYTimes
3. “Builder Sentiment High on Affordability” – HousingWire.com
4. “Housing Starts Declined in April” – Wall Street Journal
5. “Signs of Optimism — Home Prices Rise” – Union-Tribune
So which is it?
These headlines, all from reputed publications, perhaps indicate the extent to which the market is saturated with housing news, as well as the vast amount of confusion in regards to which the direction the housing market is actually heading in. While it would certainly be easy to write about any one of these pieces, doing so would only steer your opinion in whatever direction the story I discussed took.
The data can be used to defend any viewpoint: Home Depot is doing well, Lowes is doing poorly. Housing starts for apartment buildings are on the decline. Housing starts for single family homes are stable. Housing prices are rising in some areas. The market still has not rebounded in others. The question is, which indicator do you deem to be the most important?
Or should we simply be acknowledging that it is too early to predict the rise or fall of the housing market with any certainty?
Tags: headlines, Home Depot, housing, housing market, housing prices, housing starts, HousingWire.com, Lowes, media, New York Times, reverse mortgage, Union-Tribune, Wall Street Journal Posted in Consumer News, Industry News | No Comments »
Tuesday, April 28th, 2009
 Home prices in Phoenix have fallen dramatically since 2006.
About a month ago we reported that housing prices had dropped record levels in January. But February provided a little better news. The Case-Schiller Index, which follows the housing prices of 20 metropolitan areas, dropped again in February. But the drop of 2.2% was not a record for the first time in months, including the double digit decline of 18.6 percent versus last year.
And while some markets such as Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Miami have lost around half their value in recent months when compared to levels during the boom, other markets have not been hit as badly. Furthermore, sales in 10 states, including California, have increased.
The average price of a home in the United States has fallen from $230,000 at the height of the boom to $175,000.
Tags: boom, bust, case-schiller index, housing, housing prices, Phoenix, real estate Posted in Consumer News, Industry News | No Comments »
Tuesday, March 31st, 2009
The New York Times published a big story today on the record decline in home values in Standard & Poor’s Case-Schiller Property Index. The Index, which measures the home values in 20 metropolitan areas, fell 19% in January from January a year ealier. Since the housing bubble broke, many metropolitan areas have seen their indexes cut nearly in half. Phoenix has seen prices drop 48.5% from its June 2006 peak, while Las Vegas, Miami, San Francisco, and San Diego have all seen declines of more than 40%.
Analysts cited the Case-Schiller Index performance as proof that housing prices have likely still not bottomed out and that the housing market continues to perform poorly. The report is especially interesting in light of the fact that the US Census Bureau recently released a report indicating that the sale of new homes rose in February. While many viewed this report as a sign that the housing sales market has bottomed out, home prices generally take longer to rebound. It is also unsurprising that sales are increasing as prices are plummeting- many are taking advantages of foreclosures and the low prices to enter the market for the first time.
Tags: housing, housing market crash, housing prices, Las Vegas, Miami, Phoenix, real estate, real estate market, San Diego, San Francisco Posted in Consumer News, Industry News | No Comments »
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