Posts Tagged ‘housing’

New Housing Starts Unexpectedly Down in September

Wednesday, October 28th, 2009

New_HomesA day after positive news about existing home sales and housing prices, the data on new home sales sent a negative current through the economy.  This morning it was reported that new home sales fell unexpectedly after 5 months of consecutive increases. Home sales fell from a seasonally-adjusted 417,000 new home sales in August to 402,000 in September, a decrease of 3.6%.  But a survey of economists had predicted that the number of home sales would rise to 440,000 in September, leading to a prediction nearly 10% higher than the actual amount.

This is not the first time we have seen mixed housing data. While it is easy to speculate on the ups and downs of the market, only time can tell whether the bumps are telling of actual trends or merely slight deviations from the mean.  This month, all the positive data about home prices and existing home sales, as well as climbing orders for long lasting goods, show that the industry may be beginning to recover, even if that recovery is a slow one with some set backs along the way.

Affordable Housing For All

Tuesday, September 8th, 2009

affordable_housingIn a piece in the New York Times today, Edward Glaeser, the famed Harvard economist, made the following comment:

“When housing prices soared, ordinary Americans found it increasingly hard to afford a house. I would certainly cheer if Detroit produced a wonder car for $10,000 that could get 50 miles to the gallon and go from 0 to 60 in five seconds. I would also cheer if the housing industry could produce a beautiful and energy efficient 3,000-square-foot home for $100,000. The same logic pushed me to boo when housing became outrageously expensive. During the boom, I hoped that housing prices would stop rising and even decline.”

Glaeser’s sentiment leads to the following reflection: Isn’t there something appealing about a big beautiful home for $100,000? If housing is a basic right of all Americans (let alone all human beings), then wouldn’t it follow that low housing prices would be a good thing?

Imagine a world in with housing prices were so low that individuals purchasing their homes with cash was commonplace. While mortgages would still exist, they would no longer be necessary for all homebuyers. Perhaps a mortgage would become an option, like the decision purchasers make every day when deciding to make a purchase with cash, credit, or debit. Or, arguably more accurately, like the decision car buyers make when choosing whether to take out a loan or pay with cash.

It is true, as Glaeser pointed out, that low housing prices do have a more dramatic effect on the financial markets than most expected. However, this is only due to the symbiosis that exists between the housing industry, the mortgage industry, and the home goods industry.  So many of the problems in the housing crisis were caused by homes being used as an investment vehicle. When home prices fell, borrowers were stuck with homes that were worth much less than their mortgage payments.  As more and more borrowers lost their jobs in the subsequent Great Recession, even many whose homes still retained equity found themselves unable to afford their mortgages.  And the housing crisis was exacerbated.

The idea of affordable housing for all is a very appealing one.  While it does seem hard to imagine a world in which affordable housing for all could be made a reality and where housing prices could fall so as to make homeownership affordable without crashing the economy, before we spend all our time wishing housing prices would go back up, we should consider solutions (esp. long term) where housing does become more affordable, home ownership more stable, and an individual’s right to housing less susceptible to the whims of the economy.

Good News For the Housing Market

Friday, August 28th, 2009

There was some good news for the housing market this week. New home sales increased more than expected in July, up 9.6 percent from June, and at the highest levels since September of 2008. Sales were up to 433,000 versus the 395,000 adjusted figure from June.  Analysts, meanwhile, were only expecting sales to increase to 390,000 from the originally reported 384,000 in June.  However, new home sales are still down 13.4% from a year ago.  Most of the increase appears to be attributed to the Northeast, with a 32.4% increase in July, and the South, with a 16.2% increase.

The Standard & Poor’s Case-Schiller index posted its first quarter over quarter increase in three years, rising 2.9 percent in the second quarter compared to the first. The price index fell 15.4% in June, compared to a revised 17% drop in May, indicating that the rate of decline in home prices appears to be slowing.

Housing Market Rebound Freezes Out The Previously Well-Off

Monday, August 3rd, 2009

A front page story in the Wall Street Journal this morning highlighted an interesting trend; high-end homeowners are being left behind in the housing market rebound.  Stimulus programs, such as the $8,000 new homebuyer tax credit and low mortgage rates, are dependent upon income and home values.  The jumbo mortgages necessary to take out a high-cost home have come with higher rates and lenders requiring an increasingly large portion as the down payment (20-30% of the property value). All this comes at a time when prospective buyers have had an even harder time selling their homes, making coming up with money up front difficult. As a result, while the market has begun to turn upwards for many first-time buyers and lower value homes, the market is still stagnant for those in the upper and upper-middle classes.

While it is perhaps unsurprising that stimulus programs might choose to target those with lower incomes, the recession has hit those with higher incomes as well.  Many of the people affected by the stock market crash and financial fraud scandals are those who were making upwards of $150,000/year. After losing their jobs and/or the majority of their 401Ks, some members of this group are taking pay cuts in order to land new jobs. As home values decline however, this group also is beginning to have a hard time making mortgage payments and qualifying for relief. Jumbo mortgages are currently the type of mortgages with the highest default rate.

The government should do something to make sure that the upper middle class and upper classes are not completely cut out of the stimulus programs–at least so far as real estate is concerned. Their homes are taking some of the largest hits in a distressed market, to the point where selling is not possible without losing hundreds of thousands of dollars.  And in markets such as California, some are extremely upside down on their mortgages. While they may be well off in comparative terms, they could still lose their homes (and many are), could still lose their jobs and source of income (and many have), and they still should be granted some form of relief.

Housing Prices Stabilize, Home Sales Increase- Is the Market Better?

Thursday, July 23rd, 2009

The National Association of Realtors revealed today that home sales continued their increase in June, with the sale of previously occupied homes rising 3.6% from May. It was the highest number of sales since October of 2008 and beat analysts expectations by 50,000 homes. In perhaps more telling numbers, the median sales price was $181,800. While this is up from $174,700 in May, it is down from the $215,000 median sales price in June of last year.

Meanwhile, other reports are asking whether housing prices may have stabilized. The Federal Housing Finance Agency’s housing price index, based on repeat sales of the same houses, rose 0.9% in May from April. It is nearly unchanged since November (source: Wall Street Journal, front page, 7/23/09).  However, the index seems to be deceiving. It does not include subprime or other unconventional mortgages, which are the source of many of the problems in the housing market and which appear to have driven down the prices throughout the country.

These signs seem to be positive for the housing industry. But jobless claims are still high, and foreclosures, new homes, and unsold properties do not seem to play a large role in these reports. While it is nice to see two indicators moving in such a positive direction, other downward indicators seem to mean that it might not be wise to get too optimistic just yet.

New Housing Starts See Unexpected Jump in June

Friday, July 17th, 2009

More people are starting to build new homes again, or at least, that’s what the numbers from the unexpected rise in housing starts in June appear to show.  The number of housing starts rose 3.6% (or about 20,000 seasonally adjusted starts) to 582,000 units. Even larger leaps were seen in the number of housing starts of single family homes (14.4%) and the number of permits to break ground (8.7%).  Analysts had expected these values to remain unchanged from previous months.

While the number of housing starts and permits to break ground are still down around 50% from a year ago, the increase is still a sign of progress. It seems that few aspects of the real estate industry have defied analyst’s expectations recently, and the large unexpected jumps are a definite exception.  Although one wonders slightly whether developers will be able to fill all their new properties, it is good to see people building homes again. Perhaps once the new properties are completed, the worst of the recession will be over.

A Slow Rebound to the Housing Market?

Monday, June 8th, 2009

A professor of economics and finance at Yale, Robert Shiller, wrote in Sunday’s New York Times that he does not expect the rebound of the housing market to be very swift.  He wrote about why the housing market often does not follow typical cycles of supply and demand, tending to lag.  The article is especially interesting for its use of historical examples, such as the 15-year long burst housing bubble in Japan and the 7-year market drought in the US in the early 90s.

It is also true, as Shiller points out, that it takes individuals longer to make housing transitions than stock transactions. The decision to move can have a long chain reaction, including new schools, doctors, and houses of worship. When the decision is made by a couple, it requires the consent of both parties.  Then there is the sheer amount of stuff that needs to be packed, moved, and unpacked. Even renters don’t rejoice in the task. 

Such a viewpoint, supported by historical fact, serves to move the debate about the rebound of the housing market from its current waiting game (Is this the bottom? No wait, is THIS the bottom? Or is it THIS?) to one of settling in for the long haul.  Frankly, despite all the articles debating whether we should be optimistic or pessimistic in regards to the market (for example: http://www.reversemortgageguides.org/news/housing-market-declining-and-improving-at-the-same-time) , settling in for a long term slowdown of the housing market appears to be the wisest course of action.

Record 12% Of Homeowners Behind on Mortgage or in Foreclosure

Thursday, May 28th, 2009

In more depressing housing news, the Mortgage Bankers Association announced Thursday that a record 12% of homeowners are behind on their mortgage or in foreclosure.  They do not expect the number of foreclosures to crest until the end of next year.  

In an interesting twist, the foreclosure rate on prime fixed-rate loans has doubled in the last year. They now comprise the largest share of new foreclosures.  The financial crisis has also hit many of those previously thought to be invulnerable: Nearly 6% of fixed-rate mortgages to borrowers with good credit are in the foreclosure process.  

The foreclosures also appear to be clustered: 46% are located in California, Florida, Arizona, and Nevada. 

We’ve tried to keep much of the blog focused on how to get out of foreclosure for those who are affected by the crisis.  Those over the age of 62 can qualify for a reverse mortgage, which can help many avoid foreclosure.  There are also many state resources that can assist, such as the one in Illinois discussed here

If there are any options I’ve left out, please comment with them.

Housing Market Declining and Improving At the Same Time?

Tuesday, May 19th, 2009

 

The construction industry is not doing well, but does that mean the market is down?

The construction industry is not doing well, but does that mean the market is down?

Alright, it’s 10am CST. I have already read five conflicting headlines with respect to the housing market today:

1.  ”Housing Starts Hurt by Steep Drop in Apartment Building” – NYTimes

2. “Sales Drop 10%, But Home Depot Tops Forecasts” – NYTimes

3. “Builder Sentiment High on Affordability” – HousingWire.com

4. “Housing Starts Declined in April” – Wall Street Journal

5. “Signs of Optimism — Home Prices Rise” – Union-Tribune 

So which is it?

These headlines, all from reputed publications, perhaps indicate the extent to which the market is saturated with housing news, as well as the vast amount of confusion in regards to which the direction the housing market is actually heading in.  While it would certainly be easy to write about any one of these pieces, doing so would only steer your opinion in whatever direction the story I discussed took.

The data can be used to defend any viewpoint: Home Depot is doing well, Lowes is doing poorly.  Housing starts for apartment buildings are on the decline. Housing starts for single family homes are stable. Housing prices are rising in some areas. The market still has not rebounded in others.  The question is, which indicator do you deem to be the most important? 

Or should we simply be acknowledging that it is too early to predict the rise or fall of the housing market with any certainty?

Is the Housing Market Getting Better or Worse?

Tuesday, May 5th, 2009

 

The WSJ featured this photo of a bulldozer tearing down houses in Southern California.

The WSJ featured this photo of a bulldozer tearing down houses in Southern California.

Today has been filled with mixed messages in regards to the housing market.  Is it performing well or poorly? The Wall Street Journal published images of bulldozers tearing down half-finished homes in Southern California because the lender determined the cost of completing the homes would be more than they could be sold for.  On the other hand, the New York Times published a front page story about how the market in Sacramento is rebounding– a potentially good sign.  Sales are up 45% since last year. Sales in Las Vegas, another market hit hard when the housing bubble burst, are up 35%. 

 

So which is it? It seems hard to tell. It is easy and addictive to follow all the housing articles published recently, but, after writing on several of them, it appears that the bottom line keeps remaining the same:

- Yes, there are a lot of foreclosures, permeating classes where they’ve never been felt before. 

- Yes, many markets have been extremely hard hit by the housing crisis.  Las Vegas, Phoenix, California, and Miami are four of the worst. Very few, if any, areas have emerged unscathed.

- Yes, the new $8,000 tax credit has helped buyers, leading many first-time homeowners to enter the market.  Perhaps as a result, many areas have seen sales increase this past year and in the past few months.

It therefore seems safe to draw the following conclusions:  

1. The nation was hit hard by the housing crisis.

2. Foreclosures still abound, as neither the economic nor the housing crisis have lifted yet.  This is especially true amongst the middle-class, who in many cases took longer to feel the effects of the crisis.

3. However, foreclosures mean that prices have been pushed down in many markets, leading to a glut of new buyers who, in addition to pursuing the tax credit, can pay less in a mortgage payment than they can in their monthly rent, saving money by buying a home.  This situation is especially profound in the depressed market, but leads many analysts to think that there are signs of life in the market.

What do you think? Is the housing market getting better or worse?