A professor of economics and finance at Yale, Robert Shiller, wrote in Sunday’s New York Times that he does not expect the rebound of the housing market to be very swift. He wrote about why the housing market often does not follow typical cycles of supply and demand, tending to lag. The article is especially interesting for its use of historical examples, such as the 15-year long burst housing bubble in Japan and the 7-year market drought in the US in the early 90s.
It is also true, as Shiller points out, that it takes individuals longer to make housing transitions than stock transactions. The decision to move can have a long chain reaction, including new schools, doctors, and houses of worship. When the decision is made by a couple, it requires the consent of both parties. Then there is the sheer amount of stuff that needs to be packed, moved, and unpacked. Even renters don’t rejoice in the task.
Such a viewpoint, supported by historical fact, serves to move the debate about the rebound of the housing market from its current waiting game (Is this the bottom? No wait, is THIS the bottom? Or is it THIS?) to one of settling in for the long haul. Frankly, despite all the articles debating whether we should be optimistic or pessimistic in regards to the market (for example: http://www.reversemortgageguides.org/news/housing-market-declining-and-improving-at-the-same-time) , settling in for a long term slowdown of the housing market appears to be the wisest course of action.