A report released in June by the U.S. Census Bureau predicts that people aged 65 and over will soon outnumber children under 5 for the first time in history. Furthermore, the population aged 80 and over is expected to increase 233% between 2008 and 2040, a phenomenon never before seen. The population aged 65 and over meanwhile is expected to grow 160 %, compared to 33% for the total population of all ages. These predictions encompass global demographics- not just those of the United States.
An increasingly older population presents many new challenges. Health care and social security are just two of the programs under increased scrutiny. Economic models may need to change as individuals spend larger portions of their lives in retirement. An older population may lead to labor supply issues, with the question of how the younger population will be able to support all their elders.
The report also points out that an increasing share of the elderly population will be located in developing countries in the years to come. This could pose a new set of challenges. The developed health care and social service networks of Europe and the United States have not yet come to many parts of the developing world. With chronic noncommunicable diseases are now the major cause of death among older people in both the developing and nondeveloping world, the global health care system faces a new problem of treating diseases like cancer and heart disease throughout the globe-and dealing with the aging populations once they do.
It is unsurprising that the population is aging, and that, in the years after the baby boom, the elderly population will soon be a larger proportion of the world’s population. As birth rates decline, especially in the developed world, it is also logical that the older members of the population may outnumber the younger ones. But the challenges that come from these problems remain to be resolved.
Within the reverse mortgage program, it will be interesting to see if, over time the minimum age of the borrower is pushed back to reflect the longer lifespan. One wonders if the percent equity available from the home will decrease to yield a more sustainable program as people live longer. And one expects the program to grow as an increasing number of seniors become eligible for it.